
12th July 2024 – (Hong Kong) As Hong Kong prepares for the release of the Hong Kong Diploma of Secondary Education (DSE) results next Wednesday, meteorological developments loom that could add a layer of complexity to the city’s weather scenario. The Hong Kong Observatory has indicated that the subtropical ridge, which has been responsible for recent scorching conditions, is set to shift, leading to increased activity in a broad trough to the south. This could potentially destabilise weather conditions across the central South China Sea and gradually move towards Central and Northern Vietnam.
The city, which has been under the influence of a subtropical high-pressure ridge, has experienced intense heat over the past couple of weeks, with a heat warning in effect for more than ten days. This pattern is expected to continue into the early part of next week, maintaining high temperatures throughout.
Recent satellite imagery reveals two significant convective cloud clusters in the central and southern South China Sea and east of the Philippines. By this weekend, these clusters are projected to evolve into a broad low-pressure area, bringing unstable weather to the central South China Sea.
Computer models, however, show significant disagreement regarding the intensity and development of this low-pressure area. While it is generally expected to remain weak, there is a possibility it could develop into a tropical cyclone. As the subtropical ridge extends westward early next week, any developed system will likely be steered towards the Gulf of Tonkin, impacting coastal Vietnam.
The extent of sudden showers along the South China coast will depend on the actual trajectory of this system. A more westerly path may result in fewer showers, prolonging the hot weather. Conversely, an easterly path could lead to increased precipitation.
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